2016 Tattersalls Club Cup Preview & Tips

Tattersalls Club Cup 2400m – Listed

The New Year’s Day card at Randwick is headlined by the Tattersalls Club Cup over 2400m for the stayers, with a field of 9 set to line up for the $60,000 winners cheque.

The rail is at the 9m position which it hasn’t been for a while so we really won’t know how the track is playing until we are a few races in. In saying that, there hasn’t been any noticeable bias at Randwick when we’ve had a dry surface in recent memory, so we should see horses get their chance. Front runners are favoured when the rail is at the True position so 9m should play fairly.

The forecast for New Year’s Day in Sydney is 26 degrees and thankfully no rain so we can expect to have a Good 3/4 for the entire day.

6 of the 9 runners engaged here faced off against each other in the Christmas Cup on the 12th of December, won on the day by Sir John Hawkwood.

On that day we saw ZATOPAZ lead the field and after his strong win last start (after a mid race move to take up the lead) we should see him assume that position once more. He was only beaten a length in the Christmas Cup and from the good draw and 54kg again he could be tricky to run down if he gets things his own way.

I expect QUICK STRIKE to come across from barrier 9 to sit outside the leader or at least take up a position on speed, while VILAOVA might look to settle handy after covering ground last start. The run of the race could fall the way of LUCKY LUCKY LUCKY from barrier 4.

Behind the leading division SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD should take up a position in midfield alongside FELIX BAY, which leaves JIAYUGUAN, HUSSON CHOICE and CATON to take up their usual positions at the tail of the field.

Being a 2400m race with only one designated leader means we might see a slow tempo, but Zatopaz typically likes to bowl along in front, and if he doesn’t then I am sure we will see a mid-race move by one of the others.

The first three across the line in the Christmas Cup were Sir John Hawkwood, Jiayuguan and Lucky Lucky Lucky, but I think it’s the Chris Waller trained horse that is incredibly hard to beat today. Sir John Hawkwood may have won the Christmas Cup but he lumps 59kg today, 4.5kg more than his nearest rival.

Jiayuguan finished 2nd by a nose to Sir John Hawkwood and he hit the line really well. He carries the same weight today which means he gets a 1.5kg swing in his favour, draws well and should prove very hard to beat. I think the price we’re getting is more than reasonable.

Lucky Lucky Lucky was only a further nose 0.2 lengths away in 3rd and he drops down 0.5kg today so gets a 2kg swing on Sir John Hawkwood, however he just died on his run in that race and Jiayuguan finished stronger. He does map to get the run of the race but I think the Waller horse is a much better bet.

Outside of those three it is tough to see anything else winning. Quick Strike finished a brave 4th in the Christmas Cup but his wide draw here makes things tough and I doubt he can turn the tables anyway. Zatopaz could give a sight out the front but might be found out late.

To my eyes JIGYUGUAN looks one of the bets of the day, and I think he’ll be able to turn the tables on Sir John Hawkwood today with the swing in the weights. He’s racing well as it is and arguably should have won the Christmas Cup, so with everything in his favour today there is no reason he can’t win.

Let’s hope we start out New Year off with a winner!

1st JIYUGUAN – $3.00 at Bookmaker
2nd SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD – $4.40 at Bookmaker
3rd LUCKY LUCKY LUCKY – $5.50 at Bookmaker
4th ZATOPAZ – $7.50 at Bookmaker