2016 Newmarket Handicap Betting Tips
Lexus Newmarket Handicap Betting Tips (1200m)
The Newmarket Handicap is one of the most exciting and fascinating Group 1 sprints on the Australian racing calendar. As the name suggests, this sprint, unlike many others which are run at weight-for-age, is run under handicap conditions.
The event is set to be run down the 1200m Flemington straight and it appears that wewill be racing on a Good 4 despite rain earlier in the week. With little to no rain predicted on Saturday it’s hard to see the track being anything worse than Good.
Chautauqua will be aiming to become only the fifth horse in the last 50 years to carry 58kg or more to win the Newmarket, though Black Caviar and Hay List have been recent winners with that weight on their back. Seven of the past 10 winners have carried at least 56kg, which includes only Chautauqua and Delectation in this field. Furthermore, nine of the past 12 winners have worn saddlecloth numbers 1, 2 or 3.
Nine of the past 12 winners have worn saddlecloth numbers 1, 2 or 3. Nine of the past 18 winners have been three-year-olds, which includes Japonisme, Keen Array, Counterattack and Secret Agenda this year. 16 of the past 30 winners have come through the Lightning Stakes, with Chautauqua, Delectation and Japonisme the runners that were engaged this year.
Races down the straight are always hard to gauge in terms of pace, especially when the field breaks off into two separate divisions. However there looks to be three horses likely to be leading the pack in Japonisme, Secret Agenda and Charmed Harmony. Churchill Dancer and Keen Array could come next in the run, with Black Heart Bart and Counterattack behind them. The rear division will consist of Chautauqua, Delectation and The Quarterback.
Chautauqua is the best horse in the race; it’s as simple as that. But the 58kg may be the telling factor. His record at Flemington is outstanding, as is his record over 1200m, and his draw in barrier 11 is probably beneficial to him. His win in the Lightning Stakes was nothing short of freakish and the step up to 1200m makes him mighty hard to beat here.
Chris Waller does hold a strong hand in the race, however, most notably with three-year-old Japonisme who is clear second favourite. He won this race last year with Brazen Beau and this horse could give him back to back Newmarkets following his impressive 3rd placing behind Chautauqua in the Lightning. He was only beaten about a nose, and while the step up to 1200m probably suits Chatauqua better, the 2.5kg weight swing in favour of Japonisme could be crucial.
It’s Chris Waller’s four-year-old Delectation that strikes me as the most interesting runner in the race though. Delectation won the Darley Classic in the Spring over this course and distance, which was run at WFA meaning he and Chautauqua carried the same weight. Under handicap conditions here, however, he gets in 2kg better off at the weights compared to the Darley, which should make him very competitive and I can’t understand how he is $12 in the market. I think the step up to 1200m will suit him perfectly, and he comes into this ready to fire 2nd up from a break. He looks the value in the race.
It will also be interesting to see how another three-year-old, Keen Array, performs following his shocking run first up. He ran 2nd to Japonisme in the Coolmoore in the Spring and with only 50kg here he is a realistic lightweight hope of running a big race. Counterattack is Waller’s third horse in the race and he ran 3rd in the Coolmoore. With 50kg on his back he is another that could run above his price.
Despite not being keen to back him, there will be a big watch on Black Heart Bart who makes his debut for Darren Weir. The WA star has shown enormous ability in the West, and even started favourite in the Goodwood last May. It’s always ominous when a horse has their first start for Weir so it will be interesting to see how he lines up.
The big spread in the weights certainly makes this year’s edition of the Newmarket one that is full of flavour. Chautauqua could prove worthy of being crowned the world’s best sprinter if he manages to overcome to 58kg to win here (although a little horse in Hong Kong called Aervelocity may have something to say about that), but I wouldn’t put it past Waller to have his stars ready on the big day.
1st DELECTATION
2nd CHAUTAUQUA
3rd JAPONISME
4th KEEN ARRAY
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