2016 Emirates Stakes Betting Tips
The Emirates Stakes (or Mackinnon if you prefer) is one of two Group 1’s on the final day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival at Flemington.
This year’s edition looks very strong and particularly intriguing with international runners Scottish and Vadamos two of the top three chances in the betting.
Scottish eventually led the Caulfield Cup field after doing a mountain of work to get there, while Vadamos led the Cox Plate field after over racing and setting a hot tempo. From barriers 6 and 7 respectively it could be the pair of them leading together today. Good Standing is the other who might try to join them up front with only 51kg on his back. I think we’ll see a reasonable enough tempo but nothing that should hinder the leaders’ chances of winning.
Scottish’s effort to run 2nd in the Caulfield Cup was quite astonishing the more you look at the replay. He was made to work for the first 1000m of the race in order to get there, and held off all bar Jameka. He’s had three weeks since that run to freshen him up for the drop back to 2000m, which is a distance he’s won at 3 times from 4 starts. Godolphin hoop William Buick flies in to take over the ride.
Vadamos was way too keen in the Cox Plate and pulled himself to the front. He wanted to get on with it and set a very hot tempo, which made his effort to finish 4th very impressive. If that run has taken the sting out of him and he can settle better today then he will give this a mighty shake. He’s a Group 1 winner over 1600m in France and if he gets the 2000m (which he will) then he’ll be in this for a long way.
Out of the locally trained horses it looks as if The United States will be the best chance. He was the winner of the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes over this distance in Sydney in the Autumn, before running 2nd to Lucia Valentina in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Two starts ago he won easily over 1600m at the Valley, before charging home in the Cantala Stakes last start. The step up to 2000m is what he is crying out for, so provided Kerrin McEvoy can give him a good run from barrier 11 I suspect he might take some beating.
Speaking of international horses, Endless Drama makes his debut for Chris Waller. This horse ran 2nd to Gleneagles in the Group 1 2000 Guineas in Ireland just five starts ago. His best form would see him very hard to beat in this, but I suspect he may need one or two runs (or even one preparation) to find his feet in Australia. There is a big watch on him though, especially after Arod ran so well on his Australian debut on Oaks Day.
The best value in the race could be Darren Weir’s Palentino. This horse won a Group 1 over 1600m at this track three starts ago, before failing in the Epsom Handicap in Sydney. Last start he was absolutely cruising before getting completely wiped out of the race (thanks in part to The United States). I maintain that he would have gone close to winning had he not been severely hampered, and if he can run out a strong 2000m here I think he may be in the finish. Draws to get a lovely run from barrier 5 and at $15 he is over the odds.
I found it very hard to separate these but this is what I’ve gone for:
1st THE UNITED STATES
2nd VADAMOS
3rd SCOTTISH
4th PALENTINO
ALWAYS GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY
