2016 Doomben Cup Betting Tips
2016 Doomben Cup 2000m (Group 1) Betting Tips
This week’s Group 1 race in Brisbane is the Doomben Cup for the middle-distance horses over 2000m – the second Group 1 race of the Brisbane Winter Carnival.
Only a field of 10 is set to line up for the $650,000 event, with Godolphin’s Hauraki the current favourite at $3.50.
Despite hosting the ‘winter carnival’, Brisbane is set for temperatures of 27 degrees on Saturday so the track will be rated Good with the rail out just 2 meters.
Generally these races turn into quite tactical affairs with regards to the tempo, with relatively low numbers often sparking mid-race moves if the pace is not fast enough for the backmarkers. The pace here, however, looks to be fairly genuine with Team Hawkes trained Messene the obvious leader.
I would expect It’s Somewhat to come across from barrier 9 to sit outside the leader so to avoid getting caught three-wide like he was last start. That should leave Team Hawkes’ other runner Leebaz with the gun run behind the leaders from barrier 2, and he will most likely be joined up on the pace by Noble Protector.
Volkstok’n’barrell draws beautifully in barrier 5 which should allow him to settle a bit closer than he did last start. He could be joined in midfield by Our Ivanhowe with the blinkers back on, or possibly even the favourite Hauraki who sports the headgear for the first time.
Last start winner Maurus will be in the back half of the field, with Chris Waller’s pair Lady Le Fay and Spiritjim two of the more likely runners to settle at the back of the field.
Hauraki probably deserves to be favourite but he is turning out to be costly for punters. He had absolutely every conceivable chance to get past Leebaz in the Group 2 Hollindale Stakes last start but just couldn’t get his head in front. The positive for him is the step up to 2000m, a distance which he has won at Group 2 level, and the application of blinkers for the first time could be the necessary spark to get him back in the winners circle.
Volkstok’n’barrell was 3rd in the Hollindale and the step up to 2000m suits him better than any other horse in the race. The Kiwi is a dual Group 1 winner over the distance and the way he finished off the race last start suggests the extra ground will bring him right into calculations. The other key for him is the good barrier draw. He simply got too far back from the wide barrier last start so drawing barrier 5 in a field of 10 will allow him to settle much closer to the speed today.
Noble Protector, one of two fillies in the race, strikes me as a particularly interesting runner. She has returned in good order this prep, with a runner up finish in Group 2 company preceding a 3rd place finish in the Group 1 Queen Of The Turf. She has finished in the top two at both attempts at 2000m in her career and she is definitely one to include.
Leebaz ran 2nd in this race two years ago and was a brave winner of the Group 2 Hollindale Stakes last start, beating both Hauraki and Volkstok’n’barrell. The step up to 2000m might not suit him as much as the others, and I also think the Gold Coast track may have favoured the leaders on the day of the Hollindale.
Our Ivanhowe returns after failing in The BMW following a hoof problem which clearly wasn’t properly healed. He tends to race well fresh and he could run a decent race, though he would probably prefer a bit of rain. It’s Somewhat covered ground in the Hollindale and then got hampered at a crucial stage, so his run was full of merit. He is Godolphin’s second rater in the race but he can’t be dismissed. I do question whether is classy enough to beat the others though.
Meanwhile, Maurus is a progressive type that recorded a very strong win in easier grade last time. This is significantly harder but he looks to be going well. Messene returned to the winners circle in the Wagga Gold Cup but I won’t be expecting him to record the same result here. Lady Le Fay has performed very well at the distance at her past two starts but is another that would appreciate rain. She might find this a bit tough at this stage, while French import Spiritjim may not be at his best yet at just his second Australian start. He may be looking for 2400m as opposed to the 2000m here.
Happy to back Volkstok’n’barrell at the prices here.
1st VOLKSTOK’N’BARRELL
2nd NOBLE PROTECTOR
3rd HAURAKI
4th LEEBAZ
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