2016 Crown Oaks Betting Tips
The 2016 Crown Oaks Day is the third day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival at Flemington and the three-year-old fillies are set to line up over 2500m for the $1million Group 1.
The rail for today’s meeting goes out 3m, which should’nt make much of a difference except possibly the inside will play a bit better than it did for Cup Day, and the track will be a Good 3 by the time the Oaks comes around.
These races are never run overly hard as the horses need to save as much energy as possible to stay the 2500m, but I expect the front runner will be Lasqueti Spirit. She might be joined on the pace by Red Velvet Swing, and one that may settle much closer to the speed today is Bella Sorellastra from barrier 1, but they would need to announce a change of tactics.
This looks a very, very open race with the obvious exception of Yankee Rose. The only real question over her is whether she will handle the step up from 2000m to 2500m. If she does, she wins, but it’s not easy. Granted, the way she has attacked the line at both of her last two starts suggests it won’t be a problem. 3rd in the Cox Plate and before that a win at Group 1 level over 2000m sees her very hard to beat here.
Behind her there is a number of chances. The Hayes/Dabernig hold a strong hand with two key chances, being Harlow Gold and Sebring Dream. Harlow Gold finished alongside Prized Icon last start and he has since won the Derby, while Sebring Dream was runner up to the impressive Tiamo Grace last start, which looks to be a strong form line.
Eleonora beat home Tiamo Grace last start, albeit probably a bit luck to do so, but the form reads very well and provided she gets a good ride from barrier 10, she could be one of the major players here.
One at longer odds that has come in for early support is Bella Sorellastra, who we backed at big odds last start. Since her last win four starts ago she has started from double figure barriers every race, but she finally draws well here with barrier 1. That might see her settle closer to the speed (when she won four starts ago she led), and at $26 she looks one of the value chances.
Impressive last start Moonee Valley winner Smart As You Think looks like she will run the 2500m no problem, so at $16 she is worth including.
Ultimately, these 2500m races come down to the horses most likely to run the trip. If Yankee Rose handles the trip, and I suspect she will, she should be notching up her 3rd Group 1 win today.
1st YANKEE ROSE
2nd HARLOW GOLD
3rd SMART AS YOU THINK
4th SEBRING DREAM
ALWAYS GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY
