2016 Cox Plate Betting Tips
The $3 million Cox Plate is upon us and despite the less-than-capacity field, we have a very strong line up set to contest the weight-for-age championship of Australia.
The talk for the last fortnight has all been about the head-to-head match up of Winx and Hartnell, so there are a few very good horses in the field that have gone under the radar.
The track on Friday night was a Soft 5 and with more rain predicted on Saturday there is a good chance we will be racing on at least a Soft track come Saturday.
After Yankee Rose drew barrier 1 I thought they might lead and replicate Shamus Award’s win from a few years back, but the stable has said they’ll take a sit, which leaves either Vadamos or Awesome Rock as the likely leaders.
I think they will try and box seat with Winx from barrier 3, because I don’t think Bowman will want to be strung up 6th on the rail, which is where Yankee Rose might end up from barrier 1. James McDonald said he didn’t want to be behind Winx in the run so it’s possible they roll forward to sit outside the leader from barrier 7, or try and slot in behind the leaders.
Black Heart Bart will sit midfield from barrier 6, possibly with Happy Clapper from barrier 4, while Hauraki, Lucia Valentina and Happy Trails will make up the rear of the field.
All the money throughout the week has been for WINX and she’s clearly the top pick here for me. This is a superstar and she’s aiming for 13 in a row here. First up over 1400m she beat Hartnell by over 3 lengths and while he’s obviously better over 2000m, I think she has his measure. Her gallop during the week was brilliant and both Waller and Bowman are very confident. Barrier 3 means the race is at her mercy.
HARTNELL is the logical danger and he is absolutely flying, having won his past three starts by an aggregate of 17 lengths. Was beaten first up by Winx but he’s better suited out to this distance and every start he’s destroyed everything put in front of him since then. Made Jameka look average last start and she’s since won the Caulfield Cup so his form is as good as it gets.
The only international horse in the field is VADAMOS, who won a Group 1 in France over 1600m last start. His form is strong – two starts ago he ran 2nd to Ribchester who then ran 2nd to Minding, who is one of the best fillies in Europe. He has one win from 3 starts over 2000m – but the two he lost he finished last and second last so that tells me he had issues on both occasions. He might lead this field from barrier 2, but he generally needs Good ground to produce his best so the rain won’t help. Don’t discount him.
The only three-year-old in this year’s race is last start Group 1 winner YANKEE ROSE, who draws barrier 1 and carries just 47.5kg, 9.5kg less than anything else. I thought they might try and lead so to make use of the weight advantage but they’ve said they’ll look for cover, which could cause problems in my opinion. Even with 9.5kg less than anything else I don’t think she’ll be able to match it with Winx/Hartnell, but she did hit the line very well over 2000m last start and has won on wet ground before.
Maybe the forgotten horse of the field is the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes winner, LUCIA VALENTINA. If there is a horse in this field that will love the wet ground its her, and she looks ready to run a big race at her third run back from a spell. She’s won 3 of her 5 runs when third up and she steps up to her pet distance of 2000m for the first time this prep. If the pace is on a long way out, look for her launching late.
BLACK HEART BART rates as a place chance having finished in the top 2 at all 7 starts at Group 1 level for Darren Weir. Draws to get a nice run midfield but he was simply outclassed by Winx last start so place hopes look best for him. HAURAKI won the Group 1 Metropolitan last start and looks to be going better than ever. HAPPY CLAPPER looks set to peak up to 2000m today, while HAPPY TRAILS and AWESOME ROCK can’t win.
1st WINX
2nd HARTNELL
3rd LUCIA VALENTINA
4th VADAMOS
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