2016 Caulfield Cup Betting Tips

2016 BMW Caulfield Cup Betting Tips (2400m – Group 1)

The $3 million Caulfield Cup is the first of the Spring majors upon us and it looks set to be a very competitive race with four international horses engaged.

There is always a mad charge to the first turn in this race and I suspect that’s exactly what Tally will be doing from barrier 19. He looks a likely candidate to lead along with Sir John Hawkwood and possibly Scottish.

If the Godolphin pair find the front together (which is a possibility), you can guarantee they will run the race to suit themselves. I think we’ll get a moderate tempo here but I don’t see this being run at a blistering pace, unless something decides to take off mid-race.

The Ciaron Maher-trained 4YO mare JAMEKA heads the market at $3.60 after another outstanding run behind Hartnell in the Turnbull Stakes last start. The winner beat her comfortably but she spaced the rest of the field and with 52.5kg she is rightly the favourite. I don’t think the 2400m will be an issue but she will need a good ride from gate 13.

Another locally-trained horse coming off a terrific performance last start is Group 1 Metropolitan winner SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD. This is no doubt a much tougher ask but he has come back in great order and should box seat from barrier 5. With only 53.5kg on his back he looks a realistic chance at $17.

There’s been money for REAL LOVE who won the JRA Cup in good style at Moonee Valley last start. She looks to be flying and is another one who gets in with a light weight, but my concerns are to do with her ability against the top tier Group 1 horses. Expect her to go well but I think there are others that have better chances of winning.

SACRED MASTER is worth throwing into exotics at over 20/1 after his good run in the Metropolitan. He has no weight, draws well and should love the 2400m. Never discount Waller in the Group 1’s.

There’s been plenty said about the internationals and for mine, SCOTTISH looks the best of them. His overseas form just stacks up the more you go through it. Two starts ago he ran 2nd in a Group 3; the winner of that race subsequently went on to finish 3rd in a Group 1. Last start he won in Group 3 company and his last run over 2400m he finished runner up to Highland Reel. Draws well, has good early speed and looks set to run a huge race.

EXOSPHERIC and SIR ISAAC NEWTON have similar formlines and are hard to split, though Exospheric was beaten by Scottish quite comfortably last year. Both of these horses have form behind the likes of Postponed, which is one of Europe’s best horses. Both will be coming from midfield or worse and they wouldn’t be here if they weren’t genuine chances.

ARTICUS is the German horse who is now trained by the same man who trained Protectionist to Melbourne Cup Glory in 2014. He is a lightly raced horse with plenty of potential, but I question the depth of his form compared to the other Europeans here. However, we saw what Protectionist has done under Wohler, so expect him to run well.

I really do like the look of Scottish for Gdolphin here, and I think he represents a good bet at $8.50. Jameka should be best of the locals.

1st SCOTTISH
2nd JAMEKA
3rd EXOSPHERIC
4th SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD

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