2016 Australian Guineas Stakes Betting Tips
The Australian Guineas is the headline act in Melbourne this weekend and it only takes a quick glimpse at the past winners to realise just how many champions have come through this race in their three-year-old year.
Miss Finland, Shamrocker, Mosheen, Shamus Award and Wandjina are just some of the more recent winners of this race, and there’s no questioning the form out of the race stacks up later on down the track.
Darren Weir has a three-pronged attack in the form of Mahuta, Palentino and Perfect Reflection (all of which will start under double figures), while Mick Price also enters three runners, with Victorian Derby winner Tarzino the highest in the market at $8.
All of the pre-race interest, however, is centered around the dual Group 1 winner from New Zealand by the name of Xtravagant, who comes up the $3.20 favourite to win his third major.
The forecast ahead of race day is for warm conditions so we can expect the race to go ahead on a Good surface with the rail in the True position for the entire circuit. We’ve seem some different track bias each week at Flemington recently so it could pay to note down any significant trends in the earlier races.
The last tow editions of the race have been won by leaders, and with the current form Mahuta is in it wouldn’t surprise to see him lead all the way. He’s won his last six races and we can expect him to search for the lead, though he may have competition up there from Xtravagant. This will be his hardest test to date but it’s hard to knock winning form, especially when a winning streak stands at six on end.
As mentioned, Xtrvagant also tends to do his racing up on the speed, and from barrier 3 we can expect him to be right up there in the first few in running. Whether he leads or takes a sit behind Mahuta remains to be seen, but there’s no doubting his ability. He won his first Group 1 back in November, winning the 2000 Guineas (1600m) by a mere 8.5 lengths. Though he suffered a shock defeat two starts back where he clearly didn’t handle the soft track, he bounced back in impressive fashion to record his second Group 1 win last start, again winning by 8 lengths. He comes into this as a deserved favourite and a clear top pick.
Two horses at big odds could in fact occupy the best positions in running. The Gai Waterhouse trained River Wild was well supported last start but completely blew the start from barrier 1 and his race was all but over. From barrier 6 here he should get a lovely run throughout, and at nearly 20/1 he is a decent each way hope. Meanwhile, Mick Price has suggested 40/1 pop Sailing By could be the best of his three charges, and I tend to agree. From barrier 7 he will get a comfortable run in midfield, and he ran on impressively to go down by the narrowest of margins to Mahuta last start. Stepping up to 1600m at his second start back from a spell looks a good formula for him to run well here.
Xtravagant isn’t the only New Zealand Group 1 winner in the race, with David Hayes and Tom Dabernig’s recent acquisition Risque the other. She was outstanding on her Australian debut over 1200m, and her win at Group 1 level came over today’s 1600m. From barrier 10 she should be able to slot in just worse than midfield and enjoy the good tempo expected.
The controversial CS Hayes quinella of Tivaci and Palentino have both drawn wide in barriers 13 and 16 respectively. If drawn closer to the rail I’d have Palentino as a red hot chance in this, and while not dismissing his chances completely, his task is much tougher from the carpark.
Three horses that are sure to be toward the back of the field are Tulsa, Tarzino and Perfect Reflection. Tulsa ran extremely well in the CS Hayes to finish third, and his wide barrier won’t affect him too much as he tends to be a backmarker anyway.The same can be said about Tarzino who put in an eye catching performance over 1400m first up. He comes up as an $8 chance here but I struggle to see him sprinting with them over 1600m.
Star WA filly Perfect Reflection had no luck on her Melbourne debut, only seeing daylight in the final 150m. She is the kind of filly that needs room to gallop and takes a while to wind up, which is why she may not have hit the line as well as some expected last start. From barrier 2 she might face the same problem here, though the step up to 1600m and the long Flemington straight will be beneficial to her if she finds room. She also wears blinkers for the first time here so expect her to be a strong winning hope.
There looks to be plenty of winning hopes, as you’d expect in a race of this quality and importance, but I can’t look past Xtravagant who looks to be a potential superstar. His two Group 1 wins have been by a combined 16.5 lengths and he maps to get the ideal run. Darren Weir holds a strong hand and his runners could easily fill the placings. River Wild and Sailing By the two outsiders capable of an upset.
1st XTRAVAGANT
2nd PERFECT REFLECTION
3rd MAHUTA
4th PALENTINO
