2015 Winterbottom Stakes and Railway Stakes Preview & Tips

Two Group 1’s headline Super Saturday at Ascot in Perth on Saturday and both races look very competitive. This is the first time we have raced on the new 3m pad of turf so there is a chance there could be a heavy bias towards the inside runners but we’ll have to watch the early races to see if that is indeed the case as we take a detailed look in our latest horse racing tips article!

The first Group 1 on the card is the Crown Perth Winterbottom Stakes for the sprinters over 1200m. There is a field of 16 set to line up and there looks to be plenty of pace with the likes of Buffering, Dawn Approach, Liberty’s Gem, Madassa and Lucky Street all on-pace runners. Despite the query of the on-pace bias, the pace of this race should give backmarkers their chance.

I expect the old warhorse BUFFERING to take up the lead from barrier 9 and it is probably to the detriment of any other horse that is going to try and serve it up to him out front. Buffering came here two years ago and won this race so we know he travels well and handles the Ascot track. He is a 5-time Group 1 winner in the Eastern States and ran 0.6L behind Delectation and Chautauqua last start. Clearly the one to beat and value at the $4.00.

FAST ‘N’ ROCKING is the best drawn of the favoured runners in the race. He is a class below Buffering but has been running in the top sprint races in Melbourne recently and he is going to love the hot pace. Barrier 3 gives them options as to where to settle but he is the one that can run over the top of them.

SHINING KNIGHT tackles this first up for the Williams/Peters/Pike combination. He has a phenomenal first up record having recorded 3 wins and 2 minor placings from 5 starts fresh. You can expect him to be tuned right up for this and he’s another that will be flashing home from further back. He’s the best roughie in the race.

One at bolter’s odds is CHECKPOINT who also comes into this first up from over a year off the track. The last time we saw him he ran 3rd behind Elite Belle (who won this race last year) and Barakey. He’s had his problems but he’s never missed a place first up and has only missed a place once over this track and distance. Definitely one to include at around 50/1.

Other rough chances include last year’s runner up Waterman’s Bay who is only marked down due to his barrier draw, and Sujet is also one to keep safe.

Sticking with the tried and tested Group 1 performer BUFFERING who just seems to keep running ultra competitively at the very top level. If he gets a few comfortable sectionals in the lead he will be very hard to run down.

1 – BUFFERING
2 – SHINING KNIGHT
3 – FAST ‘N’ ROCKING
4 – CHECKPOINT

——-

The second Group 1 race on the day is the James Boags Premium Railway Stakes over 1600m which sees the much anticipated clash of the WA titans in Black Heart Bart, Delicacy and Real Love.

The barrier draw for this race made things very interesting with the first fur in the market all drawing double figure barriers. However, history shows that drawing wide in the Railway is not such a bad thing so we’ve just got to assess the race based on who we think the best horse is.

The speed in the race was definitely going to come from Fucshia Bandana but with the horse now scratched it looks likely that Hazzabeel will be the one to cross over and lead from out wide. Messene could push forward from his good draw and it will be interesting to see if one of Real Love or Delicacy pushes forward from the carpark.

BLACK HEART BART has taken all before him so far this preparation winning all three of his starts. Despite having never raced over 1600m before, he looks to be the best suited over this distance out of those at the top of the market. He has to defy history to win with the weight he carries but he won last start carrying 59kg so there’s no reason he can’t win again.

DELICACY is the best horse in the race in my opinion. She’s a dual Group 1 winner, albeit over much further than this. She returned with a decent run first up finishing 3rd to Black Heart Bart but she wasn’t beaten far and he was having his 3rd run this prep so her fitness will be much better for this. Pike chooses her over Real Love and she is the one to beat.

REAL LOVE was the winner of the Group 2 Perth Cup last summer and returned to the track in brilliant fashion with a win over 1400m first up. She carried 58kg that day so she drops significantly in weight so that brings her right into this. She won the Perth Cup by leading so with the scratching of the likely leader we may well see her roll forward. Pike off but Oliver takes the ride. She’s a big chance.

Chris Waller sends GOOD PROJECT over who has been racing in terrific form in Melbourne recently. Last start he carried 60kg when flashing home to finish 2nd behind Malaguerra, who then went on to win again a few days later. This horse won’t know himself with just 53kg and Craig Williams is booked for the ride. He draws wide as well which makes it tough for him to get a good run but if he finds cover he can definitely win.

One at huge odds that I’m keen to have a little bet on is TOWER OF LONHRO. I’ve had my eye on him all prep and I’ve been waiting for him to get to his 3rd run in his prep. He is 4/4 when 3rd up from a spell and he’s another that hasn’t carried such a low weight in a long time. He ran a great 3rd last start and we know this is the run that he will be peaking at. He was as much as 40/1 yesterday but he’s had some support since then.

Others in with a chance are Team Hawkes raider MESSENE who will get all the favour in the run, and HAZABEEL rates a sneaky chance if he can get an easy lead without Fuchsia Bandana involved.

Keen to stick with Delicacy who I think is the best horse in the race, ahead of Good Project for Chris Waller and Black Heart Bart who might just have too tough a task to overcome. Tower Of Lonhro the blowout.

1 – DELICACY
2 – GOOD PROJECT
3 – BLACK HEART BART
4 – TOWER OF LONHRO