2015 Victoria Derby Tips

October 29, 2015 by Posted in Betting Tips, Horse Racing Tips

Victoria Derby

The AAMI Victoria Derby 2500m – Group 1 is the latest big race day we will be looking at in our horse racing tips article.

Only one favourite in the last 10 years has saluted in this race worth $1.5 million for the 3 year olds, and that was way back in 2006 when Efficient scored at $2.40. The track currently sits at a Good 3 but there is showers forecast throughout the day on Saturday so it could be very interesting to see what state the track is in late in the day. Flemington is one of the best tracks in the country in terms of drainage and it would take a quite considerable amount of rain for the track to get severely downgraded, but nevertheless the complexion of this race could change if the heavens open up.

The race looks to have a solid tempo to it with the likes of SHARDS and AYERS ROCK coming across from wide barriers to contest the lead, as well as JADEER pushing through form a good barrier. Behind that trio we can expect LIZARD ISLAND, KIA ORA KOUTO, PALACE TYCOON, RED ALTO and possibly IRON BOSS to find good positions from their good barriers. TARZINO, ETYMOLOGY, GET THE PICTURE and a few of the outsiders have all tended to race towards the back of the field, so the field could be spread out in the early stages depending on how fast those from out wide come across in search of the lead.

I’ve narrowed the field down to about five chances. TARZINO comes in as the short priced favourite but as I mentioned, favourites don’t have the most inspiring record recently and I certainly don’t want to jump in at $2.40. He’s definitely caught the eye recently in both the Caulfield Guineas and the Moonee Valley vase, but I’d rather go for a bit more value.

LIZARD ISLAND continues to run well, finishing in the top 2 at his last four starts. He was 2nd to Oaks favourite Sacred Eye last start and from barrier 3 he gets all the favours. If he handles the 2500m there’s no reason he can’t win.

The Godolphin horse ETYMOLOGY is another that caught the eye last start, flashing home to finish 3rd behind Sacred Eye and Lizard Island. The Flemington track will really suit him and he should be charging home from well back.

GET THE PICTURE was back in 4th in the same race. He raced wide but still ran on really well from a long way back in the closing stages. Bound to get a superb run from barrier 5, Oliver takes the ride and he looks like a horse that will get 2500m. Big chance.

But the one I am really keen to be on is this 3YO from the West – KIA ORA KOUTOU. His four wins in Perth have been nothing short of dominant and he proved last start he was capable of handling a staying trip when beating the older horses over 2200m. Draws barrier 1 and at $8.00 at Crownbet I’m willing to take a chance that he is good enough.

Tarzino is certainly the horse to beat but at $2.40 (with the recent records of favourites in this race) I’m more inclined to go for the value of Kia Ora Koutou, and perhaps a few smaller bets on Get The Picture, Etymology and Lizard Island (all at double figure odds).

Written by Bet King - Sports Betting Tips

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