2015 Swettenham Stud Lord Stakes Preview & Tips

December 24, 2015 by Posted in Horse Racing Tips

Held HostageThe listed Swettenham Stud Lord Stakes (1700m) is one of the feature races on the card at Caulfield this week with $120,000 up for grabs.

The Caulfield track is currently rated a Good 3 but the Melbourne forecast for Boxing Day is rain, and plenty of it, so good luck getting in a full day of cricket! I expect with the amount of rain predicted that we will see the track definitely in the Slow or Heavy range, so it’s important to focus on those horses proven on wet tracks.

The pace of the race looks fairly decent early on with a number of these wanting to race handy. The likely leaders will be Master Reset and Majestic Duke, who will both have to cross over from out wide, which should inject a bit of tempo. Jacquinot Bay will likely follow them over to take up a position on speed, and Star Rolling will kick up from barrier 1 to sit in the box seat.

The likes of Tashbeeh, Metaphorical and Held Hostage should find midfield positions relatively easily, while I expect Signoff to settle worse than midfield in his first run back from an injury layoff. Lidari should settle worse than midfield in his first run back with last start winner Precious Gem.

Overall the tempo should be good which will allow those settling off the pace to get their chance, but I don’t see any reason why those parked just behind the leaders can’t win. We should see every horse get their chances but it will all come down to who handles the wet track the best.

Let’s go through some of the main hopes:

JACQUINOT BAY has recorded three straight 4th place finishes and he draws extremely wide but the key with him is he’s placed in 6 out of his 7 runs on wet tracks. If he can somehow get across from out wide and take up a position behind the leaders, or even lead, he should be hard to hold out.

PRECIOUS GEM won at her first start for new trainer Henry Dwyer last start and there’s no reason she can’t back that up with another win here. She’s always had the talent and it looks as if she has found her best form again. She’s placed in two of her three runs on a heavy track and she gets a great run from barrier 4 with only 54kg.

HELD HOSTAGE is a very interesting runner making his way over from South Australia. He’s recorded two good wins at his last two starts and drops 5kg from his latest win. Barrier 9 should see him settle in midfield or worse, and his record on wet ground is good so he definitely is one to include.

TASHBEEH recorded a deserved win last start over 1600m at Flemington. Drops 3kg in weight again here although this race is clearly harder. Draws to get a fantastic run in midfield and he does have a placing on soft ground, but he’s not placed in his two attempts on Heavy so that is a concern for me.

LIDARI and SIGNOFF will need the run in my opinion, while I expect METAPHORICAL to struggle on the wet ground so I’m happy to risk her today.

With the way the race is going to be run and the expected wet surface, I think there are two horses I’m willing to back here in PRECIOUS GEM and HELD HOSTAGE. I think they will both handle the wet ground and both have good form coming into the race. If JACQUINOT BAY can get across without too much trouble he could feature in the finish, while TASHBEEH will have to prove his ability on the wet surface. STAR ROLLING could be one at value to include from barrier 1 and a win at his only start on wet ground. Happy to risk both LIDARI and SIGNOFF, as well as Peter Moody’s mare METAPHORICAL. MAJESTIC DUKE could be another one to throw in exotics with its good form on wet ground.

1st HELD HOSTAGE – $8.50 at CrownBet
2nd PRECIOUS GEM – $4.80 at CrownBet
3rd STAR ROLLING – $23 at CrownBet
4th TASHBEEH – $4.80 at Sportsbet

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