2015 Melbourne Cup Preview & Tips

The 155th running of the Emirates Melbourne Cup sees arguably the strongest line up we’ve ever seen. The field consists of 11 internationally trained horses and has just a single horse that is bred, owned and trained in Australia. It’s going to be hard to pick the winner, but we will try with our horse racing betting tips!

History suggests it is nearly impossible for an international runner to win the Melbourne Cup at its first start in Australia, meaning Big Orange, Max Dynamite, Sky Hunter, Kingfisher and Bondi Beach all face a significant historical barrier in the way of their quest for Cup glory. Only one horse has carried 58kg and won since international runners began challenging for the Cup, and that was a mare by the name of Makybe Diva. Snow Sky carries the top weight this year and has that 58kg hurdle to overcome.

5YO’s are the most successful age group in Cup history (one win more than 4YO’s), and the last 5 editions have been dominated by 5 or 6 year old males. The only horses above the age of 6 in the race are Hokko Brave, Red Cadeaux, Who Shot Thebarman, The Offer and Sertorius.

The key to this race is always finding those horses that are guaranteed to run the 3200m trip; in general half the field normally don’t run out the distance. This year looks a bit different with so many international runners in the field, most of which have run well over 3200m and beyond in the past. There are going to be two key factors in the Cup this year: tempo and track conditions.

Track Conditions

The Derby Day track was a Soft 5 after receiving 9ml of rain that morning. The track proceeded to favour those runners on the inside, and the rail has been moved out 2m to counter the bias. Showers have been forecast in the lead up to the race, but with only 0.2ml falling so far and a clear forecast on Tuesday, the track should be rated as a Good 3 or Good 4 at worst. With the rail moved out and the rain expected to stay away, I think we should see a pretty even surface with no apparent bias.

Tempo / Speed Map

Interestingly there looks to be no out-and-out leader in this year’s race, which will make it fascinating to see which horses take up the running. Snow Sky has led with success before, and Prince Of Penzance led in the Moonee Valley Cup last start with blinkers on for the first time. The stable said they were hoping for barrier 1, which is exactly what they drew, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take up the lead once again, or at least settle very handy. It will also be interesting to see what those drawn wide choose to do, particularly the internationals. Bondi Beach (18), Quest For More (21), Big Orange (23) and Hokko Brave (20) have all drawn very wide, and I would expect at least one or two of them to press forward in search of a prominent position. This should create a bit of speed in the race, as those with good barriers try and keep them posted wide.

The big announcement was made today that connections of Fame Game were considering taking up a position closer to the speed from barrier 12. Criterion (4), Sertorius (5) Max Dynamite (2), Red Cadeaux (8), Trip To Paris (14), Who Shot Thebarman (6), Sky Hunter (7) and The United States (3) are expected to take up a position on speed or just off the speed in midfield, while Hartnell (17), The Offer (13), Preferment (11), Almoonqith (10) and Kingfisher (9) will likely settle worse than midfield with cover. Definite backmarkers appear to be Grand Marshal (15) and Gust Of Wind (19), and it is unknown what the tactics will be for horses such as Our Ivanhowe (22), Hokko Brave (20) and Excess Knowledge (24).

So who leads? Snow Sky will come across from barrier 16 but whether they are keen to lead with 58kgs remains to be seen. Joining him will be Prince Of Penzance from the inside barrier, and I do think Quest For More and Big Orange will make their way across from wide barriers. This should create a decent tempo.

Fancied Runners

If the track remains a Good 3 (which we are led to believe it will) then FAME GAME is clearly the horse to beat, and we can’t see anything possibly beating him. If you look at his career, on three occasions he has resumed from a spell over 2200m and run midfield (just like the Caulfield Cup) before stepping up to 3000m+ and winning quite dominantly. That is precisely the lead up he’s had into this year’s Cup and from barrier 12 he will get a perfect run. He’s drifted out to $5 and happy to be backing that heavily with the knowledge the track will be dry.

Outside of him it is a incredibly good contest. OUR IVANHOWE is set to peak and if it weren’t for barrier 22 he would rate very highly in this. He has a Group 1 win over 2800m in Germany and has run midfield in a Japan Cup. If the rain does appear, his chances increase. RED CADEAUX is an exception to most rules. You can look past the fact he hasn’t had a lead up run into this and that he is 10 years old, because he simply turns into a different horse when he’s in Australia. His run to finish 2nd behind Criterion in the Autumn was further proof of that, and from barrier 8 he will be given every chance to run well again this year. He looks a good value option for trifectas and first fours. TRIP TO PARIS rates very well given he has come to Australia and run very well in the lead up to the Cup. Barrier 14 is reasonable, and he is weighted well enough to win. We know he stays the distance given he’s a Group 1 winner over 4000m and he’s right in this, though his price is a touch skinny. PREFERMENT is one of two 4YO’s to consider. He’s undefeated at the track gives the indication he will run the trip. Chris Waller is working miracles and from barrier 11 (the most successful in Cup history) he rates well. ALMOONQITH was crying out for extra distance before demolishing a good field in the Geelong Cup. He’s won up to 2800m overseas and we know the Geelong Cup is a winning formula as a lead up race. Barrier 10 means he gets every chance. QUEST FOR MORE represents monster value if you’re willing to forget his Geelong Cup run. His previous form over 3200m is outstanding, and he defeated Max Dynamite three starts back before running 2nd to Big Orange two starts ago with Trip To Paris was back in 3rd. He gets a good weight swing in his advantage against those two and the positive is he’s had a lead up run in Australia before this race. At $126 he is definitely a roughie to include. Finally, BONDI BEACH is the other 4YO that needs serious consideration. He’s had just the 5 career starts but he’s not finished outside the top 2 in any of those. He defeated Order Of St George three runs back, who then came out and won a Group 1 by 11 lengths. Though it’s concerining that he hasn’t had a run in Australia, he gets plenty of respect.

We’re willing to take on those internationals that haven’t yet had a run in Australia before running in the Cup. Those include Big Orange, Max Dynamite, Sky Hunter, Kingfisher and Bondi Beach, with the latter the only one worth making some leeway for. But this Cup is Fame Game’s, provided the rain stays away.

Selections

1st FAME GAME
2nd RED CADEAUX
3rd OUR IVANHOWE
4th TRIP TO PARIS
5th QUEST FOR MORE