2015 Kingston Town Classic Tips

A full field of 16 set to line up for the final Group 1 race in Australia for the year and it’s packed full of quality. The make up for the race is particularly interesting with the three-year-old filly Perfect Reflection coming up as favourite at the bottom of the weights with just 50kg. Three-year-olds have won 3 of the last 8 editions of this race so they certainly appear well placed. However, you have to go back to 1999 to find the last female to win the race.

Favoured runners have fared very well in recent years with 8 of the last 9 winners starting at $5.50 or under, while every winner since 1994 has had its lead up run at Ascot (Magic Artist and Extra Zero are the odd ones out here). Another interesting stat is that since 2002, every winner has carried either 52kg or over 58kg, so those at each end of the weight scale have been the runners to follow.

The Ascot track caused punters some grief two weeks ago on Super Saturday when they raced on the 3m pad for the first time and resulted in the on-pace runners being heavily favoured. We go back to the 6m rail here which should see most runners get their chance. The track itself might end up in the Soft range come race time as the forecast for Perth is for showers in the morning and mid afternoon, so we might not get the firm track that we are used to.

PERFECT REFLECTION comes up favourite with absolutely no weight on her back and William Pike has chosen to ride her instead of Delicacy which is a hint in itself. However, there are reasons why we won’t be backing her to win. She is a 3YO filly, and while 3YO’s have a good record, females don’t. The last female to win was 1999, and from the records we have that date back to 1983, no filly has won in that time. This is just her 5th start and it is still her first ever preparation; she takes on the boys and the older horses for the first time in this race, she draws wide and she steps up to 1800m for the first time. A WFA Group 1 against this field is a massive ask for a 3YO filly in her first campaign. She might just win, but can’t be backing her.

BLACK HEART BART comes up a great price today. He ran outstanding in the Railway Stakes where he drew wide and came from well back to finish 4th. He draws perfectly today in barrier 3 so should get all the favours in the run and with that in mind he should get the 1800m no problems. He carries the weight again but this is WFA ad not a handicap so he’s much better off than he was in the Railway. The only concern for him may be the rain if it comes, but he’s done nothing wrong and is much better suited here. Good E/W price.

MAGIC ARTIST is the horse that we keep coming back to. Both of his runs in the Mackinnon and the Emirates were outstanding. He should have won the Mackinnon but for terrible luck, and he ran a super race to finish 4th in the Emirates despite the unsuitable drop back to 1600m. The 1800m here suits him a bit better and the form from those races is the best form in this race. He draws the inside barrier and has Damien Oliver on board and his only concern is if the rain comes and the fact this is his first start at Ascot. In saying that, his two recent runs in Melbourne were both on Soft 5 tracks so he looks terribly hard to beat.

DELICACY ran a great race in the Railway where she drew wide and came from last at the 300m to finish midfield. The track was heavily favouring front runners on the day so her run was pretty good considering. She draws horribly again today and they’ll just go back to last and hope for the best. She is a star but she might still need more ground than this, and she also has the mares hoodoo to overcome. She should run very well but she has a massive job from that barrier.

REAL LOVE finished alongside Delicacy in the Railway and she is going to get one of the best runs in the race today from barrier 7. I think some of the other horses are better than her but she will get a gun run and her first up win was blistering so she can’t be discounted. BALMONT GIRL ran super to finish 3rd in the Railway and despite carrying a lot more weight today, she draws the same barrier (2) and I expect her to go well again. EXTRA ZERO is the blowout chance on his best form but he will need the track as firm as possible.

Considering all the historical trends we’ve alluded to and looking at the dynamic of the race, this is what we’ve come up with:

1st MAGIC ARTIST
2nd BLACK HEART BART
3rd DELICACY
4th BALMONT GIRL

* Likely to have a saver bet on Perfect Reflection just in case she is a star!