2015 Emirates Stakes Betting Tips

A strong field has been assembled as we offer horse racing tips for the Group 1 Emirates Stakes over 1600m – especially with a few international imports among the field. In recent times the Emirates has been a bit of a graveyard for favoured runners with only 4 winners at single odds since 2000. The average weight of Emirates Stakes winners since 2000 has been around the 53.5 – 54kg mark, and 11 of the past 15 winners have drawn in barriers 1-9. However, with the way this Flemington track is playing that could all be irrelevant in assessing today’s race!

The track heavily favoured the inside runners in the first two days of the carnival, before rain forced a severe downgrade of the track and runners started migrating towards the outside rail for Crown Oaks Day. The track is expected to be rated in the Heavy range, with a best possible rating of Soft. AROD is expected to be scratched due to the wet track.

There looks to be a fair amount of speed in the race with the likes of Turn Me Loose, Ecuador and Coronation Shallan all leading types. Behind that Sons Of John, Rock Sturdy and Bow Creek should be looking for handy positions, while Disposition may looks for a spot a touch further forward after coming from last to win last weekend. Horses such as Lucky Hussler, Messene, Moriarty, Amovatio, Politeness, and he Or She all tend to settle midfield or worse, and luck in running could play a big part, especially if the outside rail is the favoured destination in the straight. The race should be run at a decent gallop so most should get their chance to make ground.

Lets preview the main hopes:

LUCKY HUSSLER was the winner of the Group 1 Toorak Handicap two starts ago before going down as the short priced favourite in the Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley last start (won by Turn Me Loose). Carries top weight under handicap conditions here (which is rarely carried to victory in this race) and he’s 0/2 on heavy tracks so I’m prepared to look past him as a winning chance here.

BOW CREEK went into the Blackbook of every punter in Auastralia after storming home to finish 2nd behind Turn Me Loose at Moonee Valley at his first run in Australia. Generally he improves sharply 2nd up but the concern is the heavy track given he failed at his only start on heavy. He was a $2.50 favourite that day and went for a 5 month spell after that so it is tough to know if there were other issues. He drops 3.5kg in weight from his first up blinder and if he handles the track he looks hard to beat.

DISPOSITION continued his fantastic for when winning a Group 3 last weekend after placing in consecutive Group 1 races.Think he is better suited at 1400m than 1600m and the draw is slightly tricky. The wet track shouldn’t pose much of a problem and dropping back to 54.5kg gives him an each way chance here.

MAGIC ARTIST was a tragedy beaten on his Australian debut in the Mackinnon Stakes, climbing all over the back of Gailo Chop. The question out of that race is how much the rails bias played into his favour on the day and whether it flattered the performance. He drops back to 1600m from 2000m on the one week back up which is a huge query, and he only has three placings from six starts on soft tracks which is also a concern. Dropping 5kg to 54kg is a big advantage but I’m taking him on due to the concerns outlined.

POLITENESS is absolutely flying this prep with 3 wins on the bounce, the most recent at Group 1 level in the Myer Classic. She drops to 53kg under handicap conditions today and the more rain the better for her chances! She will settle in the back half of the field and be charging home. She rates as a great each way hope.

The massive blowout in the field is AMOVATIO for that man Chris Waller. Forgive his last start where he was caught in the worst part of the track at the Valley when nothing made ground all night (except Bow Creek) and look to his hat trick of wins before that. Fantastic record over this track and this distance, drops to 53kg and he’s drawn well. Slight query on the wet track but does have a 2nd placing at his only start on heavy.

Happy to be taking on Magic Artist here and prepared to back BOW CREEK despite the query over his wet track form. Politeness goes in next after her great win in the Myer Classic. She will love the rain and gets conditions to suit with the light weight. Disposition never runs a bad race and should go well again, while Amovatio looks a blowout hope.

Emirates Stakes Selections

1 – BOW CREEK
2 – POLITENESS
3 – DISPOSITION
4 – AMOVATIO

Consider placing your 2015 Emirates Stakes bets at CrownBet