2015 Crown Oaks Betting Tips

Not an overly big field for the 2015 Crown Oaks this year but the top 4 fillies in the market make this a race of real quality, with three of those fillies last start winners in Group 2 or Group 3 company. History shows that the Wakeful is the most successful lead up race for the Oaks and favourites also have a fantastic record in the race – the last 12 winners of this race have started $7.50 or less, with 8 of those being favourites.

The big question when offering our horse racing tips is how the Flemington track is going to play after heavily favouring the rail for both Derby Day and Melbourne Cup Day. The rail remains at 2m as it was for Cup Day, where the inside 10 meters of the track was far superior to the ground outside of that. The one thing that could change the pattern of racing is the predicted rain.

There is up to 10 mils of rain expected leading up to the race, which should see the track sitting in Soft range at best. With the Oaks being the 8th race of the day, and the 27th race on the track this week, it will be interesting to see how much the track deteriorates and what the pattern is early in the day.

The tempo of the race looks to be fairly slack, with a real lack of a designated leader in the race. This could mean that JAMEKA takes up a position closer to the lead (or even lead it herself), while both AMBIENCE and HONESTA could roll forward from their wide barriers. RITZY has shown in the past a tendency to race on speed, until they announced a tactics change three starts ago which has since seen her race a touch further back. From barrier 9 the race favourite SACRED EYE will be looking to find cover just off the leading horses, while PASADENA GIRL maps to get a beautiful run in midfield from barrier 5 (if that’s where they choose to put her). Behind those we have DAWNIE PERFECT, THE GREY FLASH, MUZYKA, ZAARABEEL, DULVERTON and PRINCESS ARIA who all tend to settle well back in the field, so we may see the field stretched out early on.

With the amount of rain forecast we need to look to those horses that have proven success on wet tracks or at least have breeding to suggest they will handle it. For this reason I am prepared to risk JAMEKA who comes into the race on the back of a good win at Moonee Valley where she beat Tarzino who has since won the Victoria Derby. Previous to that she finished 2nd to Stay With Me so there is no issue with her form, but I’m not convinced she is going to be suited to the wet track. She’s never run on it and her breeding doesn’t exactly suggest she will relish the conditions. With others in the race that will, I’m looking past her as a winning chance.

SACRED EYE took on the males last start and she beat them convincingly. Etymology finished 3rd that day and he then came out and ran 2nd in the Derby. Previous to that she ran 2nd to Don’t Doubt Mamma who has won multiple city races since then. The stable have a pretty large degree of confidence around her, and given she is a daughter of High Chaparral out of a Rock Of Gibraltar mare, I think we can assume she will run well on wet tracks. She’s really hard to beat and I have her rated equal favourite.

AMBIENCE is the filly I have rated equal favourite alongside Sacred Eye after her brilliant win in the Wakeful last Saturday. She improved about 4-5 lengths from her run in the Ethereal behind Dawnie Perfect (where she didn’t handle Caulfield well) and also showed she probably appreciated the cut out of the ground. From barrier 10 I expect her to roll forward in a race with not much speed, and that race showed she is adept in the wet and will relish the 2500m. She’s my top pick.

PASADENA GIRL is one that is flying under the radar and rates as the best each-way chance in the race. She was luckless in the Guineas when Bowman got it terribly wrong on her, and she ran well behind JAMEKA last start on a track that really favoured front runners. Her runs this prep have signaled she may be looking for more ground and her Group 1 win in Sydney last prep came on a Soft 6 track. Barrier 5 means she gets a lovely run so she’s one to include.

HONESTA is a Group 2 placegetter on a Soft 7 which shows she handles the sting out of the ground, and she’s finished in the top 2 at her past 6 starts so she rates as a nice roughie, while DULVERTON is the blowout chance in the race after a good run behind Extra Choice in the geelong Classic over 2200m last start. She was a touch unlucky there and finished off in nice style, so the 2500m should suit and as a daughter of Commands she is sure to love the rain! Willing to overlook DAWNIE PERFECT given she’s had 5 starts on Soft tracks for just a single placing.

Oaks Selections
1 – AMBIENCE
2 – SACRED EYE
3 – PASADENA GIRL
4 – DULVERTON

Consider placing your 2015 Crown Oaks bets at CrownBet