2015 Caulfield Cup Betting Tips
The 2015 Caulfield Cup is this Saturday, October 16 and we have horse racing betting tips for the big day, including a look at all the runners.
BMW CAULFIELD CUP 2400M – GROUP 1
The $3 million Caulfield Cup is set to field one of the strongest line ups in the history of the race. The field contains 12 individual Group 1 winners from all over the globe, and is strongly represented by international horses. Two Japanese raiders, two New Zealand Group 1 winners, two Group 1 level UK stayers and two former German horses are set to line up in the final field of 18.
The Caulfield track came under criticism last week for being too firm, and that’s not likely to change. We can expect a Good 3 on the day and the rail moves out 6m meaning the rail should play fair, unlike Caulfield Guineas Day where it was off.
The race looks to have only one or two designated front runners, so equal top weight Snow Sky should find his preferred role as leader. Volkstok’n’barrell is expected to join him up there from his good barrier draw, and there could be a few horses drawn out wide looking to cross over and take up a position on the pace. Those include Royal Descent, Magicool and Magnapal, but I don’t foresee this causing a breakneck speed up front.
From the good draw, Mongolian Khan should take up a position just forward of midfield and enjoy a good run, while it will be interesting to see what Craig Williams decides to do on Hokko Brave from the wide draw. There are plenty of horses here that typically race well off the pace, such as Fame Game, Gust of Wind, Lucia Valentina, Grand Marshal and Hauraki.
Overall I expect a really even tempo which should give most horses their chance. The speed from out wide could inject a bit of tempo but there isn’t exactly an out-and-out leader among that lot so I doubt we will see a horse attempting to spear across and find the lead.
History is certainly against the favourite Mongolian Khan, with only one favourite saluting in the last 9 years. Additionally, only one of the 16 four-year-olds to have won the race since 1983 has carried more than 54.5kg, so with 55kg Mongolian Khan would have to buck that trend too.
Rising Romance comes into this year’s edition with the same weight that she carried in 2014 when she finished runner up to Japanese raider Admire Rakti. She’s got a much better draw this year and I believe she is one of the leading chances.
Fame Game is going to be much better suited over 3200m for the Melbourne Cup. The Caulfield track, along with barrier 1, is going to pose him plenty of problems and for that reason I’m prepared to risk him as well.
Hokko Brave is the other Japanese horse, and I think he is much better suited to this race rather than the Melbourne Cup. He ran 3rd in a Group 2 in Japan first up over 2500m last prep, so the 2400m here should really suit him. He is well weighted and despite the wide draw I see him as a very strong hope.
Snow Sky undoubtedly holds some of the strongest form in the race and you can forgive his failure last start when he wasn’t suited by the soft track. He was a dominant winner of a quality Group 2 over 2400m in the UK and from barrier 3 he looks the likely leader in the field. Should enjoy a good run and he rates as a huge chance.
Other notable mentions go to the Godolphin horse Hauraki and ATC Oaks winner Gust of Wind with only 51kg.
Caulfield Cup Verdict
1st: RISING ROMANCE
2nd: HOKKO BRAVE
3rd: SNOW SKY
4th: MONGOLIAN KHAN
