2018 AFL Round 21 Betting Tips

August 9, 2018 by Posted in AFL Tips


Last weekend saw us go a disappointing 1/3 on our best bets, with both of our two losses being by 4 points or less. We’re now looking forward to the upcoming weekend, where we’re confident we can bounce back with some winners. So without further ado, we present this weekend’s edition of our AFL Round 21 Best bets.

Essendon vs St Kilda (Friday, 7:50PM AEST)
Round 21 commences on Friday night with the Bombers taking on the Saints at Etihad Stadium. The Bombers finals hopes are hanging by a thread as they sit in 11th position at 10-9. They would have to win all three of their games to have a (slim) chance of sneaking into 8th. Meanwhile, the Saints are playing for pride and would love to put on a good performance in their fourth and final Friday night match of the season.

The recent form suggests that this one should be a pretty straight forward win for the Bombers. Although they lost a nail-biter to the Hawks last weekend, they’re still 6-2 in their last 8 matches and have won 3 straight and 5 out of their 7 at Etihad Stadium. On the other hand, the Saints have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and have won just 2 games at home this season (Lions, Blues). Interestingly, the Bombers lead the head-to-head record against the Saints by a whopping 40-18 since 1980.

All in all, we’re more than happy to take the Bombers to cover the spread in this one.

TIP: Essendon at the line (-28.5) – $1.92 at Sportsbet

Hawthorn vs Geelong (Saturday, 1:45PM AEST)
The match of the round is arguably the match between Hawthorn and Geelong at the MCG on Saturday. The two most successful sides over the past 10 years have engaged in a fierce rivalry that has provided terrific viewing in nearly all of their encounters. This one, however, could be one of the biggest in the past couple of years, with both teams needing a win to (most likely) cement themselves a place in the finals.

Since Geelong went on that famous 11 match winning streak after the 2008 Grand Final, the two sides have played 11 games, with Hawthorn winning 6 and Geelong 5. The most recent clash was in Round 2 this season where Hawthorn held off a rampaging Geelong outfit to win by a solitary point.

With both teams desperate to secure the win, we can see this one being another extremely close battle between the two arch rivals.

TIP: Either team wins by under 15.5 points – $2.50 at Sportsbet

GWS vs Adelaide (Saturday, 7:25PM AEST)
A match that has flown under the radar, but could prove to be a thriller is the GWS vs Adelaide clash at UNSW Canberra Oval. The Giants are arguably the form team of the competition and are looking to solidify their position in the top 4, while the Crows need a win to mathematically keep their season alive.

As mentioned above, GWS have been in absolutely blistering form of late and have won 4 straight and 8 of their last 10. Meanwhile, Adelaide are coming off a gutsy (and controversial) 3 point win against the Power in the showdown, making it 3 wins from their last 4 games this season.

These two side met in Round 11 this season at the Adelaide Oval, where the Giants won by 16 points. With top 4 on the line and most of their cavalry back, we can see the Giants cruising home in this one.

TIP: GWS at the line (-15.5) – $1.92 at Ladbrokes

Melbourne vs Sydney (Sunday, 3:20PM AEST)
Our final play for Round 21 is on the highly anticipated Melbourne vs Sydney match at the MCG on Sunday afternoon. It’s another important match for both teams and for different reasons. The Demons are making a late push for a top 4 spot and getting a win this weekend would go a long way to achieving that, while the Swans are fighting it out with several other teams for the final 1 or 2 positions in the top 8.

These teams haven’t faced each other in season 2018, which makes it a little harder to get a read on. However, the form of the Demons is extremely enticing, having now won 4 of their last 5, with their only loss coming against Geelong from a Zach Touhy goal after the siren. On the other hand, the Swans have looked sluggish in the back half of 2018, losing 4 of their 6 matches since the bye.

We’re again going to take the form team in this one, with the Demons line looking like great value.

TIP: Melbourne at the line (-21.5) – $1.92 at CrownBet

Written by Bet King - Sports Betting Tips

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