2018 AFL Finals Week 1 Betting Tips

September 5, 2018 by Posted in AFL Tips


The stakes couldn’t be much higher as the 2018 AFL Finals are set to begin! Check out our best bets for all four Week 1 finals matches below!

Richmond vs Hawthorn (Thursday, 7:20PM AEST)
The First Qualifying Final will be played at the MCG on Thursday night between the Tigers and Hawks in what should be an absolute thriller. The Tigers are the 2017 reigning premiers and 2018 minor premiers and will come into the match with tremendous confidence. Meanwhile, the Hawks are arguably the form team of the competition after a terrific second half of the season and will be looking to prove their premiership credentials with a statement win over the Tigers.

This is probably the most interesting match of the week due to the contrasting play styles of both teams. The Tigers love to kick, chase and put an abundance of pressure on the contest, while the hawks play a kicking style where they like to hold up the play and use their elite foot skills to penetrate the defence. We saw the Bulldogs opt for a Hawthorn style of play against the Tigers and have great success in the last round of the season, although it’s hard to get a great read on that match as it was effectively a dead rubber.

Look for the Hawks to push the Tigers all the way in this one, but fall short by a couple of goals.

TIP: Richmond to win by 1-39 – $2 at Sportsbet

Melbourne vs Geelong (Friday, 7:50PM AEST)
The First Elimination Final of 2018 will be played at the MCG on Friday night between the Demons and the Cats. If there’s one feel good story from this season then it has to be the Demons making the finals after so many years of falling short. They’ve had an up and down season but managed to claim a home final after a few terrific wins at the end of the season. Much like the Demons, Geelong have had problems with consistency and just managed to scrape inside the 8 with a couple of important victories in the second half of the season.

This one is hard to get a read on and could go either way for the Demons. Their lack of finals experience could either hurt them or provide an added intensity to their game. For Geelong, you know what you’re going to get from the likes of Duncan, Selwood, Dangerfield etc., but the addition of Gary Ablett Jr for these huge matches could give them another gear. The major concern I have for the Cats is the contribution they’ll get from their bottom 6-8 players, which I feel are remarkably worse than the Demons bottom tier.

This one is effectively a 50/50 at the Bookmakers, but I feel that the Demons have the superior list and a game style that should hold up well in finals.

TIP: Melbourne to win – $1.80 at Ladbrokes

Sydney vs GWS (Saturday, 4:20PM AEST)
It seems that the AFL got their dream week 1 finals match-ups as we’ve got another blockbuster for the Second Elimination Final, this time between the Swans and Giants in the first finals edition of the battle of the bridge. The Swans were in danger of missing the finals altogether after a disastrous stretch of games in the second half of the year, although they were able to recoup and finish the season in a strong position. Meanwhile, the Giants finished the season with a few baffling performances, but will remain a darkhorse for the premiership if they can hit their peak performance at the right time.

It really surprised me to see the Swans open as genuine favourites against their cross town rivals considering the question mark over the fitness of a number of their star players. The only way I can have the Swans at such a short price is if Buddy is 100% fit, which it’s fairly clear that he’s not.

Look for the Giants to put for the foot on the gas in the second half and run over the Swans to book themselves a place in week 2 of the finals.

TIP: GWS to win – $2.15 at BetEasy

West Coast vs Collingwood (Saturday, 8:10PM AEST)
The final match of the first week of finals is being played in Perth between the Eagles and Magpies at Optus Stadium. The Eagles have defied a lot of critics to hold a commanding position in the finals after a top 2 finish, earning themselves 2 home finals. On the other hand, the Magpies have defied some critics of their own, finishing 3rd on the ladder to surprise just about everyone.

West Coast will get a boost from their star forwards in Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling both being fit and will be sure to cause Nathan Buckley a few headaches at the selection table. While the Magpies will be hoping that their midfield that has been superb all year can get on top of the likes of Shuey and Redden.

I’m very surprised that the Eagles aren’t shorter odds in this one. More than happy to take them at the line.

TIP: West Coast at the line (-9.5) – $1.92 at Sportsbet

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